The valley where it all begon

I will never get used to the absolute beauty of this place.

Where are we? The ‘Skjomdal’, a long valley cutting through Norway, just south of Narvik. A stream, a river and a fjord, all surrounded by stunning mountains.

It is here that it all started for me. This valley is home to two of our Norwegian MIREN roads, which we started monitoring back in 2012. It also hosted some of the first microclimate sensors back in 2016, for a project that later grew into SoilTemp.

Autumn vibes in our MIREN plots, thanks to the very red berries of Cornus suecica

Now, it is mostly in charge of bringing us two days of happiness each year, as we enjoy its beautiful sites while reading out microclimate sensors and collecting vegetation data.

The road affectionately called ‘NO’, one of the cornerstones of our research since 2012
Our home for the night in the Skjomdal. Upgraded with a solar panel this year, the homely light inside for the first time didn’t have to come from candles.
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Airport botany

On our way to Abisko, northern Sweden, a massive early-morning thunderstorm in Brussels was the start of a 28-hour travel delay: we missed our next flight with a margin of just 10 minutes, and as such ended up too late for the last flight of the day to the little airport of Kiruna. Most of that delay was spent at Stockholm Arlanda, the giant travel hub just north of Swedish capital. There, we had to put up quite the fight to keep the delay at 28 hours only, as the initial proposition was closer to 72…

Now, students and I were not there to sit around and do nothing, we were travelling north for plants and nature! So, after the airline put is in the very agreeable ‘Comfort Hotel’ on the airport grounds to bridge the gap, we brought up a map of the airport and looked for an escape into the Swedish countryside. Now, Arlanda turned out to be remarkably suitable for such a plan. In less than half an hour of improvised hiking, we had left the concrete nothingness of the airport and wandered into increasingly amazing nature.

And so it happened that our layover at Stockholm Arlanda was used learning Swedish plants, chasing insects and discovering wildlife. In the end, the perfect start for the students for their month of botanizing in Abisko. The mood was set. The trip was going to be epic.

Top row: picturesque Swedish countryside house, some ‘true’ Swedish heathland, and a remarkably biodiverse lake.

Second row: relatively epic forest landscapes – Swedish strongsuit.

Third row: flowers on the airport concrete, a wagtail and Lythrum salicaria at the lake side.

Bottom row: very fluffy fields of Trifolium arvense, more Swedish heathland, and the cherry on top: an adder!

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The ever-present ghost of data quality in SDMs

Those who know me are likely well aware of my interest in species distribution models (SDMs). In particular, I’ve been focused for years on how we can enhance these models using higher-resolution data, such as microclimate information or anthropogenic disturbance.

This queeste for increasing SDM-resolution, however, has to overcome a few highly important data-related issues that can’t be fixed by simply increasing the resolution of the maps used as explanatory variables. In a review published just now in Ecography, we discuss these and related issue: sample size, positional uncertainty and sampling bias. Indeed, one can have microclimate data with as high of a resolution as possible, if your species data is suffering from one of these three issues, you can’t get the performance of your model anywhere close to what you might have been hoping for.

Sampling bias, sample size and positional uncertainty – the three characteristics of the looming ghost of data quality that might affect the performance of your SDMs. All three of them are affected by species ecology and the environment.

Positional uncertainty

Case in point: positional uncertainty. When building SDMs, we often think about our species observations as points on the map. Often they are not, however; they are more like smudges. Depending on the data, the observational errors can range from just a few meters (e.g., GPS inaccuracies) up to a kilometer (e.g., aggregated data from global databases) or even more (e.g., historical data with poor location information such as some herbaria). Failing to take into account that uncertainty (i.e., working with the falsely comforting points rather than the smears on your map) could affect the apparent correlations between species observation and environmental data. The size and importance of this error also varies between species. For example, for mobile species it is often much harder to pinpoint an exact location, while deep-sea organisms are often located using less-accurate acoustic positioning.

Three categories of factors driving positional uncertainty: the resolution and configuration of the spatial predictors (e.g., micro- versus macroclimate data – see the paper for more details), recording techniques and data processing (e.g., GPS accuracy) and species ecology and site characteristics (e.g., a lower accuracy for big animals, limited GPS accuracy under forest canopies or in cities)

Sampling bias

A similar issue exists with sampling bias. Often enough, we feel reassured by big numbers, with models built using thousands of points looking soothingly trustworthy. Here again, however, these numbers could create false confidence.

Species observations often have strong spatial bias, with many points located close to each other, and big gaps in between. Typically, positive sampling biases have been reported towards easily accessible areas (e.g. proximity to roads, rivers, and urban settlements), protected areas, more populated areas, and charismatic species, leading to spatial and taxonomic biases. Uneven data-sharing practices make this issue even worse. These issues are not only present when using citizen science data, but at a larger scale also when using data collected by researchers, who are similarly biased towards certain locations that are more reachable, more interesting, or more likely to attract funding.

Clear recommendations

Importantly, our review goes beyond a simple discussion of these problems with our SDM-data. We made a point of creating clear, hands-on suggestions on how to deal with these issues, every step along the way. These suggestions are summarized in the figure below.

With that, we hope this review can become a helpful guide for anyone working in the amazing but treacherous world of species distribution modelling. With our review in hand, the data should not play further unexpected tricks on you!

Read the whole review and its recommendations here in Ecography.

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Veronica

The series of papers known as ‘Geron et al.’ has a new addition, marking the final piece of Charly Geron’s PhD trajectory studying the link between urban plant invaders and urban microclimates.

In his earlier chapters, we already demonstrated that urban invaders often originate from warmer and drier native regions, probably benefiting from the warmer urban temperatures due to the urban heat island effects. We found that these species nevertheless prefer shaded environments, which protect them during urban heatwaves. We also explored the traits, phenology and genetics that contribute to these behaviors.

In the latest article by Geron et al. published in Oecologia, we delve deeper into the latter pressing question: do non-native plant species adapt to urban environments? We focused on the delicate little (but make no mistake, this species native to the north Caucasus and Iran can be a real crop pest) flower Veronica persica (bird’s-eye speedwell) as our model species, conducting a combination of field (or better – urban road verges and wastelands) surveys and a ‘common garden’ experiment.

What we were after was straightforward to articulate, but – sorry – bloody difficult to test: was there a difference in the development and performance of Veronica persica between urban and rural settings, and, if differences exist, could they be attributed to either adaptation, mother plant influence or simple plasticity? if plants from urban origin showed a higher reproduction in urban microclimate, it might be the sign of adaptation to urban environments. If not, it could suggest that Veronica persica is highly plastic, resulting in variations in its development following local conditions but not due to genetic changes.

Our findings highlighted the latter scenario. Veronica persica exhibited significant phenotypic plasticity across all measured traits, with reduced germination, growth, and flowering under urban conditions. This suggests significant setbacks to plant success in the more stressful growing conditions of a warmer urban microclimate.

Interestingly, we found no significant differences in how well urban versus rural plants coped with these conditions, indicating a lack of local adaptation. However, we observed notable genetic differences at the population level, influenced by the identity of the mother plant, suggesting genetic diversity among populations.

Strong phenotypic plasticity between rural and urban microclimates, with lower germination, longer germination delay, (substantially!) fewer flowers and longer flower delay in urban microclimates. No sign, however of local adaptation (red lines = urban origin, blue lines = rural origin, yet both colors are simply scattered randomly).

Does this mean that non-native plant species cannot adapt to urban environments? Certainly not. It’s important not to generalize based on a single species. Our findings did align surprisingly well with previous research on Matricaria discoidea (pineapple weed), however, which also demonstrated strong phenotypic plasticity and maternal effects, but no clear local adaptation.

Two is not yet a crowd, yet they do show clearly that detecting subtle local adaptation amidst the variability introduced by phenotypic plasticity is challenging, especially in highly adaptable ruderal non-native species.

We can only end – as so often necessary – with a call for further research. Urban environments are warming rapidly, and the urban environment creates unique ecosystems. Understanding how both non-native and native species may or may not adapt to these conditions is crucial for protecting future biodiversity.

Read the full story in Oecologia or here on ResearchGate to find out more!

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Tarfala

The Tarfala research station, with some of its beloved glaciers in the background

While a lot is going on in and around Abisko, as can be seen in yesterday’s story, part of the team has ventured further south, to the perhaps even more beautiful moonscape of Tarfala.

Here, a rugged mountain cabin hosts the research team studying some of Sweden’s tallest mountains and biggest glaciers.

For us, it is the vegetation in the glacier forefield that we care about: can we reconstruct the monitoring transect from a set of historical surveys and reconstruct how the vegetation has changed following the inevitable glacial retreat?

A helicopterflight or 24 km long hike away from the nearest road, Tarfala is clearly a notch more adventurous than the Abisko area!

Pictures by Jeanne Terragno

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The summer is for Sweden

The group has a whole team up north again, monitoring vegetation and bumblebees, gathering microclimate data and so much more.

I was lucky enough to spend a few days up there as well, checking up on the long-term monitoring sites on mount Nuolja, hiking to the top of our gradient in the beautiful valley of Laktatjakka, and checking out the extremely poor and acidic heathlands of the steep slopes of the Norwegian fjord of Rombak.

Next week, a final two days of fieldwork for me in a beautiful Norwegian valley, then it’ll be the awesome, interested and enthusiastic students and fieldwork crew holding the fortress till early September and autumn setting in again. Jealous, but happy it’ll be a great time with great science for them!

Microclimate and vegetation monitoring with a view of Abisko village
A yellow field of buttercups
Absolute cutie: Linnaea borealis
The beautiful wooden poles marking our long-term vegetation monitoring plots on mount Nuolja, with the famous Lapporten mountain gap in the background
Evening sun on Trollius europaeus and Geranium sylvaticum
Microclimate monitoring with a view of a Norwegian fjord
This majestic rock has tempted to roll down into the fjord for at least twelve years
‘Vegetation’ monitoring in the high-alpine zone of the Laktatjakka trail
Ranunculus glacialis
Part of the team in action on a beautiful day in the Laktatjakka valley
Miniature forest in the high-alpine zone
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