Long-term followers of this blog know I’ve always been fascinated by species distribution changes. We’ve tracked non-native species moving into mountains and cities, studied how mountain plants travel up and down slopes along roads, and explored how microclimate – and changes in it – affects all of this.

But all of that focuses on recent changes, what we call contemporary climate change. What we often forget is that the world has been dynamic for millions of years, and species have been moving up and down, and left and right for just as long. So, we asked ourselves: could we learn from these past dynamics to better predict the future?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320725005361That’s exactly what Yuheng Chen tackled in his master thesis – now expanded into a full paper in Biological Conservation. Yuheng, now a PhD student in our group at Utrecht University, has with this paper completed quite a journey on a topic that has kept my head spinning: looking far back in time to understand the forces shaping species today. And let me tell you, looking that far back is not easy.

The core question was simple enough: are species used to climate change or not? Species that evolved in regions with strong past climate fluctuations might be better at coping with future change, whereas those from historically stable climates might be more vulnerable. In other words, a species’ history shapes its present ecological niche, which in turn affects its future range size.

To explore this, we went (well, virtually, for me) to China. We identified 2,933 plant species endemic to China, which conveniently avoids issues of artificial borders and inconsistent data across countries, while still benefitting from the huge variety of climates and ecosystems across the country. Using species distribution models, we mapped their current ranges, measured their sensitivity to climate, and predicted how those ranges might change by the 2070s under two climate scenarios.

Next came the exciting part: comparing regions where species diverged long ago (‘divergence hotspots’) with areas that have experienced big climate swings since the Last Glacial Maximum (‘paleoclimate-change hotspots’). Museums are regions where species diverged a long time ago – they’re ancient centers of diversity, like living archives. Cradles are regions where species divergence is more recent – they’re hotspots of new evolutionary activity.

Here’s what we found:

• Species from stable, long-term refuges (‘museum areas’) are projected to lose range under future warming.
• Species from climate-fluctuating regions might actually expand their ranges.

Interestingly, there was no difference in predicted change rates between species from old (museum) versus new (cradle) divergence hotspots, but paleoclimate exposure mattered a lot: species from areas that experienced strong past climate change are predicted to do better than those from stable refuges.

These findings highlight how evolutionary history and past climate experiences shape both current distributions and future responses. They also give us a clue about the winners and losers under rapid climate change, and stress the importance of identifying areas that are long-term refuges versus regions accustomed to taking a punch. While mostly exciting from a theoretical perspective, this knowledge is also important for designing future-proof protected areas.

Reference

Chen et al. (2025). Identifying divergence time and paleoclimate change hotspots for better conservation under future climate change. Biological Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111499.